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Subject: Faxon's 1997 Preliminary Subscription Price Projections
From: Jakob Harnesk <[log in to unmask]>
Reply-To:BIBLIST - Topics in Nordic research library user services <[log in to unmask]>
Date:Fri, 19 Jan 1996 09:23:21 +0100
Content-Type:text/plain
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Vidarebefordrar h=E4r information om Faxons prelimin=E4ra prognoser f=F6r=
 1997 =E5rs
tidskriftspriser. Som framg=E5r av tabellen nedan r=E4knar man med ca 10 %=
 h=F6gre
priser p=E5 amerikanska tidskrifter, 7-11 % p=E5 europeiska. Prognosen=
 baserar
sig p=E5 de priser amerikanska bibliotek f=E5r betala. Man har antagit att
dollarn kommer att vara stabil eller st=E4rkas n=E5got.=20

>---------- Forwarded message ----------
>Date: Wed, 17 Jan 1996 15:59:24 -0400
>From: Teri Harrison <[log in to unmask]>
>Subject: Faxon's 1997 Preliminary Subscription Price Projections
>
>January 1996
>
>The Faxon Company has released the following 1997 Preliminary Subscription
>Price Projections.  And for those of you attending ALA Midwinter in San
>Antonio who are interested in subscription pricing trends, please consider
>attending Faxon's popular Pricing Trends Seminar on Sunday, January 21,
>1996 from 1:30 to 2:30 p.m. in the San Antonio Convention Center, Room
>204.  For a printed copy of the following projection, stop by Faxon's
>booth #353 any time during exhibit hours.
>
>Faxon's 1997 Preliminary Subscription Price Projections
>
>Based on the latest information on publisher price increases, world
>economic conditions, and the current and projected values of the US
>dollar, Faxon is projecting the following changes in journal subscription
>prices for 1997 subscriptions
>
>Please note that these are preliminary projections based on current
>conditions and are subject to changes as the year progresses. We are
>projecting an approximate overall increase of 9.3 percent for a typical
>collection.  This estimate is based on our expectation that a strong US
>dollar will keep increases for European journals below 10 percent.
>
>                        North           Continental
>                        America         Europe          U.K.    Other
>
>General Inflation       2.8%            2.5%            2.1%    2.0%
>Publishing Factors
>  Paper                 0               0               0       0
>  Postage               0               0               0       0
>  Page/Volume Increase  3.0%            3.5%            3.5%    2.0%
>  Cancellations         4.5%            5.0%            4.5%    3.0%
>Currency                0               0 to -3%    0 to -3%    0
>
>TOTAL                   10.3%     8.0 to 11.0%  7.1 to 10.1%    7.0%
>
>
>TYPICAL COLLECTION INCREASE*
>
>                        % of Budget $   x       Increase        =3D       =
 Total
>
>North American          60%             x       10.3%           =3D      =
 6.18
>Continental Europe      25%             x       8.0 to 11.0%    =3D   2.0=
 to 2.75
>U.K.                    10%             x       7.1 to 10.1%    =3D  0.71=
 to 0.10
>Other                   5%              x       7.0%            =3D      =
 .35
>
>TOTAL INCREASE                                                  9.24 to=
 9.38%
>
>* To determine the overall increase for your own collection, multiply the
>% of Budget $ of your collection for each category above by the Increase
>listed and add the resulting numbers, as illustrated above.
>
>
>Key Assumptions
>
>Paper and Postage:  We do not expect any direct increase due to either of
>these factors for 1997.  In fact, paper prices will probably be lower.
>
>Page/Volume Increases:  Increased manuscript submissions and pressures to
>publishers will continue to increase publishersU costs, even with more
>stringent publication criteria.  We are estimating 3 to 3.5% increase for
>this.
>
>Cancellations:  Subscription cancellations and shifts to other
>technologies will continue to be a major factor in publishers'
>price-setting decisions. While we did not generally see massive library
>cancellation projects for 1996 subscriptions, the gradual erosion of
>subscriptions continues to affect publishersU costs in a direct way.  We
>will be better able to provide a more accurate estimate of this factor
>later this year, once publishers have completed their analysis of their
>1996 orders and cancellations.
>
>Currency:  We expect the US Dollar to remain stable or stronger through
>1996. Many analysts believe that 1995 marked the end of a ten-year
>downward trend for the US dollar.  Sustained moderate economic growth, low
>inflation, the prospect of a balanced budget and a strong influx of
>foreign investment will all help the dollar.
>
>At the same time, European countries are likely to cut their interest
>rates to spur sluggish economies, and Germany, in particular, will likely
>try to keep the Mark reigned in for the benefit of the European Monetary
>Union.  These factors will also contribute to a stronger dollar.
>
>For the purpose of this very early projection, we are therefore projecting
>that the US dollar will remain at least as strong as in 1995 and could
>possibly strengthen further through the year.  This will mean that US
>libraries should see no increase due to currency exchange for 1997
>subscriptions.  In fact, if the dollar does strengthen, it is possible
>that the currency effect will be positive, offsetting the base price
>increases.
>
>
***********************************************************************
Jakob Harnesk,  Executive officer
Royal Library, BIBSAM (Office for National Planning and Co-ordination)
P.O  Box 5039, S- 102 41  Stockholm, Sweden                                =
=20

E-mail    : [log in to unmask]
Telephone : +46  8  463 42 70
                       +46 70  553 91 98
 Fax       : +46  8  463 42 74
***********************************************************************

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