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Subject: Elsevier långt från en konkurs
From: Jan Szczepanski <[log in to unmask]>
Reply-To:BIBLIST - Topics in Nordic research library user services <[log in to unmask]>
Date:Wed, 24 Sep 2014 13:03:42 +0200

text/plain (43 lines)

Elva år efter Berlindeklarationen om open access har fenomenet inte
påverkat den kommersiella
marknaden. Efter att under många år följt utvecklingen på svenska
bibliotek och det bristande
intresset för open access så är det inte märkligt. Open access är mest
tomma ord. Det är inte
många kronor som går till satsningar på open access, miljonerna går
till dein globala tidskrifts-


Investment Conclusion
Reed Elsevier looks less vulnerable to structural challenges than we
had anticipated when we downgraded
the stock in 2011. We think that academic librarians, as long as they
receive sufficient funding, will
continue to renew "Big Deals", and the OA policies adopted by
governments around the world appear
deferential to the interests of subscription publishers. As a result,
we think the current organic revenue
growth of Elsevier is sustainable, and this growth – in turn –
supports a valuation in line with current share
prices. As a result, we are upgrading the stock to Market-Perform,
with new target prices of £10.00 and
€19.00 respectively. We still counsel caution on the stock, however,
as the risk to academic budgets in a
possible recession is not insignificant, and there is a reputational
risk if the publishers were to avoid
adopting practices which demonstrate clearly they are not using public
funding of OA to raise their profits
(contradicting their pledges to not do so).


Jan Szczepański
F.d Förste bibliotekarie och chef för f.d Avdelningen för humaniora,
vid f.d. Centralbiblioteket, Göteborgs universitetsbibliotek
E-post: [log in to unmask]

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